2026 Midterm Forecast

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Control of Congress

Tossup (under 60%) Leans (60–75%) Likely (75–95%) Very likely (over 95%)

Senate House Governor

Needle Map

Close Senate races

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Odds come straight from Kalshi’s public market data. Each candidate’s chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask for their “Yes” contract (falling back to the last trade when the book is empty), scaled so a race’s candidates sum to 100%.

The needle wobbles inside the bid–ask spread, the range traders are actually quoting right now. The 24-hour change compares against the same quotes a day earlier. Not affiliated with Kalshi, and not financial advice.

State shapes are U.S. Census Bureau boundaries via us-atlas. The House hex map is laid out from the Census Bureau’s district locations.